Outlook
Part of Six startup funding outlooks for England in 2027
Startup funding outlook: three scenarios built on UK EIS, SEIS and business-creation data
A startup funding outlook for England founders: HMRC EIS and SEIS statistics and ONS business creations set the signals for three scenarios.
The most defensible outlook for founders is a selective market with uneven access. Official counts of tax-relief equity show a flat scheme and a growing seed scheme, concentrated in London and the South East. The figures below are UK-wide, so read them as context for England, not as a forecast.
What to take away
- Enterprise Investment Scheme funding held at £1,575 million in 2024 to 2025, while Seed scheme funding rose 14% to £276 million.
- London and the South East took 60% of EIS and 66% of SEIS investment, so compare local availability with your base.
- Advance assurance requests rose in 2025 to 2026 but approval rates fell, so a request is not a commitment.
- Build three funding cases and protect a minimum cash floor with a defined stop date.
Equity: a flat scheme and a growing one
HMRC accredited statistics record that 3,735 companies raised £1,575 million under the Enterprise Investment Scheme in the tax year 2024 to 2025. The previous year, 3,775 companies raised the same £1,575 million.
Concentration matters as much as the total. Around 4% of EIS companies raised 27% of all investment, counting raises over £2 million. A strong headline can therefore hide a narrow market where most ordinary early-stage firms raise far less.
The Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme moved the other way. The number of companies raising under SEIS was 2,430, compared with 2,310 a year earlier, and the amount raised rose 14% to £276 million from £242 million. The cap on what a company can raise under SEIS increased from £150,000 to £250,000, which widens its reach.
Regional access: London and the South East lead
Companies registered in London and the South East raised £948 million, or 60% of all EIS investment, in 2024 to 2025. In SEIS the share was higher: £181 million, or 66% of SEIS investment.
A founder in Manchester, Leeds or Bristol should read this as a reason to plan the investor search early. The guide to a seed round outside London covers regional angel groups and funds, and the SEIS and EIS comparison shows which relief fits the round.
Advance assurance: a demand signal with a falling approval rate
Advance assurance requests show how many companies plan tax-relief rounds. In 2025 to 2026, 4,085 SEIS requests were received and 3,090 (76%) had been approved so far. In 2024 to 2025, 3,285 requests were received and 2,785 (85%) approved.
| Scheme | Tax year | Requests received | Approved |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIS | 2025 to 2026 | 3,310 | 2,365 (72%) so far |
| SEIS | 2025 to 2026 | 4,085 | 3,090 (76%) so far |
| SEIS | 2024 to 2025 | 3,285 | 2,785 (85%) |
The 2025 to 2026 approvals are counted "so far", so compare them with the earlier year cautiously. More requests with a lower approval rate point to heavier competition for investor attention, and to the need for a prepared plan. See the guide to demand signals for more.
Business creations: the denominator for startups
ONS business demography counted 71,935 UK business creations in October to December 2025, up 10.0% on the same quarter of 2024. It counted 65,750 closures, 3.6% fewer than a year earlier.
Creations are enterprises added to the Inter-Departmental Business Register. They are not funding applications and do not count investable startups. Use them to size the pool of new firms competing for capital, and never as a measure of funding need.
They still feed the scenarios as a pressure gauge: more new firms chasing flat scheme totals means tighter access. The guide to market size explains what can be counted.
Founder plan: three cases
Build three cases: selective recovery, flat access and tighter capital. In every case, protect a minimum cash floor, define a funding stop date and keep a route that does not depend on the same decision maker. Bring accounts, cap table, forecast, customer evidence and security controls into order before outreach.
| Case | Equity signal | Demand signal | Business-creation signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selective recovery | EIS raises above £1,575 million and SEIS above £276 million | SEIS approval rate recovers above 76% | Quarterly creations hold above 71,935 and closures stay below 65,750 |
| Flat access | Both schemes stay near 2024 to 2025 levels | SEIS approval rate stays near 76% | Creations and closures stay near those two counts |
| Tighter capital | EIS and SEIS raises fall below 2024 to 2025 levels | SEIS approval rate keeps falling below 76% | Creations fall below 71,935 while closures rise above 65,750 |
Review the official releases each year and change the company plan only when a signal affects its stage, route or region. The risk scenarios guide shows how to stress-test a plan against delay and narrower equity.
What no official count can tell you
None of these series says how long your own round will take, or what your company can raise. They describe schemes and registers, not your investors. A strong funding outlook cannot repair weak unit economics, and a difficult market does not make every application futile.
Put company measures beside the market figures: verified targets, diligence progress, forecast net proceeds, time in stage and runway to the agreed floor. Two positive investor calls do not prove that the market has turned. For the wider picture, see the England market guide.
Before you act
- Compare local availability with your operating base and growth plan.
- Treat an advance assurance request as a plan, not a commitment.
- Protect a minimum cash floor and define a funding stop date.
- Bring accounts, cap table, forecast and customer evidence into order.
Common questions
What do the EIS and SEIS figures show about the market?
They show how much tax-relief equity companies raised in 2024 to 2025: £1,575 million under EIS and £276 million under SEIS. EIS was flat on the year before, while SEIS rose 14%. They cover the whole UK, so use them as context for England only.
How should a board use external market indicators?
Use a short external panel: scheme totals, advance assurance requests and approvals, and business creations. Put company measures beside it, such as verified targets, diligence progress, forecast net proceeds, time in stage and runway to the agreed floor. Label publication lag and missing data, and set a threshold for changing route, amount or timing.
